Srijan Foundation

The aftermath of Benazir’s assassination will reverberate for a long time.

It will affect not only Pakistan but also its relations with other countries, notably the USA. The US will allow President Musharraf some time and gauge if he can ride out the storm that is to erupt in the next few days.

     In case he manages to, he may be able to hold on for some more time. Knives will be out for Musharraf. However, they have been out before and he has managed to dodge them so far.

       The biggest strike was after 9/11, but the wily dictator managed to summersault more than once in the air and from being an ardent supporter of Taliban managed to convince the US that Pakistan has turned a new leaf. It was a valuable ally in the war against terrorism, of course only so long as he was at the helm of affairs. Will he be able to keep the unrest that is bound to be unleashed in the next few days? 

     He has been predicting chaos if the emergency was lifted. That he did so most reluctantly, after continuous admonishing from the US, and world pressure, is obvious.  He can very well say now ‘look I told you so’.

     He can now reimpose the emergency with few questions asked by external pressure groups. He can even have an election after six months or even immediately. 

     Even if the elections are staged, With Benazir gone and Nawaz out of the race the Prime Minister so thrown up will be a nobody. This will fit in well with his plan for a sham democracy for show casing, and all powers vested in himself.

      Of course, it will depend on Gen Kiyani, the COAS of Pakistan Army. He is the greatest beneficiary of the present circumstances.

     If history of Pakistan is anything to go by, Gen Kiyani  is in the shadows waiting for the drama to play out.

Musharraf must today be more scared of Gen Kiyani than any one else.

 The Indian Army has moved more than 6,000 troops to the Chinese border amid reports of Chinese intrusions in Bhutan. The Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Deepak Kapoor, said here on Thursday, however, that the reported intrusions of Chinese forces into Bhutan was “a matter between the two countries.”

The shifting of Army formations north of Nathu-La comes in the wake of reports of Chinese troops coming close to the Siliguri corridor. But the Army authorities said that Chinese forces had been coming close to the Dolam Plateau for over two decades, as the boundary in the area is still to be precisely defined.

The Army Chief also said that infiltration in Jammu and Kashmir had been continuing, and warned that there was a chance of “jihadis and fundamentalists,” facing a renewed crackdown in Pakistan, sneaking into India, and specifically across the Line of Control into Jammu and Kashmir, in the wake of the political turmoil in the neighbouring country.

  On the issue of infiltration into Jammu and Kashmir, the Army Chief said: “This could be a tactic by Pakistan to divert attention from its internal crisis.” He added that infiltration had not stopped and was actually continuing in Jammu and Kashmir. Though it is more difficult to cross over during the winter due to the snow, Gen. Kapoor said the militants used routes south of the Pir Panjal ranges to sneak in.

“Ever since the passes have been opened in Jammu and Kashmir, infiltration has been on. And now that the passes are closing down due to snow, there is a possibility that influx bids are shifted to areas south of Pir Panjal, where there is not much snow,” the Army Chief said. Gen. Kapoor said the security forces had mounted strict vigil all along the Line of Control to check any spurt in militant activities.

     Unfortunately for India, since its  independence, it has not had a statesman at the helm  with a sense of history and the ability to derive practical lessons from it.

      A deep study of history and writing about it may make one a scholar of repute. Idealistic views, soft speeches, and apparent  magnanimity  may  make a person worthy of applause and adulation. But these are not the only qualities that go to make up a statesman.

     In fact these very qualities can mislead an impractical individual to assume incorrectly that his judgments on events and occurrences and their outcome are correct and final. Personal bias born out of own experiences, slanted advice and incorrect reading of events and their outcome can lead to disastrous errors.

     Noble intentions and idealistic views are not always reciprocated or reflected in international interactions and dealings. National interest is real politic. Persons at the helm can never afford to forget that in the real world every country has its own ethos and history, its own ideologies and compulsions.

        China has never concealed its territorial ambitions. Their national objectives have always been to stake claim on any part or even a complete country which at anytime in the past had been annexed to the Chinese Empire. Chinese have never let go of an opportunity to reiterate their claims, or invade and occupy areas claimed by them. They have occupied claimed areas by stealth, by forcible occupation or effective diplomacy. The Chinese occupation of Aksai Chin is a clear case of occupation by stealth. Chinese  occupation of Tibet was by effective diplomacy. 

     Pakistan has never concealed its objective to destroy India. Forcible occupation of Kashmir and support to terrorists as a state policy are clear indicators of its enduring animosity.

     India has suffered in the past, and is continuing to suffer at present in the absence of effective leadership that understands  the real meaning of history and the adverse results accruing from  failure to learn from it.

     We shall touch in due course touch up on areas that bedevil our present, in the international arena.

Do let us have your views.

      India shares thousands of miles of unsettled  borders with its neighbours. It also has belligerent neighbours who who love to needle India continuously. They are aware of the absence of a National Security Policy in this country, and the weakness of the political class in statesmanship. Incursions have been taking place regularly and the government is unwilling to face the problem squarely.

Extracts from a news report:

     WHEN HE smiled and shook hands with Chinese Army officers across the barbed wire that marks the line of actual control between the two nations on Sunday, Defence Minister A.K. Antony couldn’t have missed the black tar road on the other side.

     He chose to call his visit “an eyeopener”, referring to the roads and facilities the Chinses have built on their side of the border. India needs to dramatically improve its road networks in border areas if it is to keep up with developments on the Chinese side, Antony – the first Defence Minister to visit the LAC here since trade through the pass resumed in July last year, after 44 years – said.

     “Infrastructure on the other side is far, far superior,” he added. Posing for photographers from the media on the Indian side and officers and soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army on the Chinese side, Antony said:

     “I am happy now that I have got to know the situation. I will vigorously champion the cause of developing infrastructure. We need to develop infrastructure not only for the army but also for the civilian population. We have to take it up seriously” On resumption of trade through Nathu La, he said: “The idea is to increase this gradually I hope in the years to come, more and more items will be included for trade. People of both sides will benefit from it.

     But before that, we have to develop our infrastructure.” Border trade closed for the winter last Thursday During Antony’s visit, Brigadier S.L. Narasimhan, commander of the 63 Brigade that is tasked with guarding Nathu La, briefed him on the ground situation on the border .

     The minister also met Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor

 jatin.gandhi@hindustantimes.com